Approximately two-of-three Iraqis believe that the "surge" has failed.
September 10, General Petraeus presented his long awaited assessment to Congress. Petraeus reported that the military had accomplished most of its objectives associated with the “surge” campaign. Petraeus announced that troops deployed temporarily during the “surge” would gradually leave Iraq (approximately 30,000) and that policymakers should not mandate further troop reductions until March 2008. However, Americans are disinclined to trust Petraeus’s assessment. CNN and the Opinion Research Corporation reported in August that only 43 percent of Americans expect Petraeus to present an objective evaluation. Even fewer (approximately 40 percent) believe that the “surge” is succeeding.
War-weary Iraqis are similarly ambivalent about the American occupation. According to the latest BBC/ABC poll, approximately 47 percent of Iraqis want the America military to withdrawal immediately and approximately 85 percent are not confident in the American military. Approximately two-of-three Iraqis believe that the “surge” has failed.
Opinions among Iraqis are often influenced by their ethnicity and area of residence. Only Kurdish Iraqis support a long term American occupation. The Kurds are concentrated in northern Iraq, a relatively peaceful and stable area. Much of the “surge” was deployed in Bagdad and that city has consequently become more secure. Bagdad residents are more inclined to endorse the "surge" than other Iraqis.
In general, Sunni Iraqis particularly dislike the American military. Approximately 93 percent of Sunni Iraqis consider attacks on American and British troops acceptable. In Anbar provence (in western Iraq), the Sunni insurgency calmed considerably in concurrence with the “surge.” But the “surge” has done little to dissuade Shia militias, who continue to clash with one another and with Iraqi and American military personnel.
Iraqi politicians are less opposed to the American military than the Iraqi people. Iraq’s mostly-Shia government understands that the Iraqi army cannot operate without American support. Sunni politicians worry that they will be shut out of the government if the United States ceases to oversee Iraqi politics.
Undeniably, the “surge” has improved the security situation in Iraq in some respects. General Petraeus reported that sectarian violence has reduced substantially and Bagdad is significantly more secure. However, as surging troops withdrawal, violence may erupt. In order for the United States to secure the many troubled regions of Iraq, a much larger “surge” is necessary, but neither Iraqis nor Americans would support such an increase. It is now clear that the Bush Administration should have utilized a much larger force initially in Iraq or nixed the invasion altogether.
J.G.
Sources:
'Please Go, Some Time.' The Economist, pg. 57. September 15-21, 2007
'Why They Should Stay.' The Economist, pg. 13. September 15-21, 2007.
