Late last month, amid wild speculation as to why, Moqtada al-Sadr suspended armed resistance against U.S.-led coalition forces in Iraq. Earlier in the month, al-Sadr had split his Mahdi into two factions: a cultural one and a resistance one.
Why the Change?
There has been a significant amount of analysis done by Iraq observers trying to figure out the motivation for al-Sadr’s reorganization and suspension of hostilities against what he terms “occupation” forces.
Some have opined that al-Sadr was moving away from armed resistance and toward the Iraqi political process, trying to enhance his position in the Iraqi government in the face of an inevitable U.S. drawdown of military forces. Others have said the targeting of Mahdi leaders by U.S. and Iraqi forces was having a devastating effect, and still others have said that al-Sadr was trying to bring rogue elements under control.
No matter what the reason, the cessation of hostilities is a good thing for all involved, although one has to assume that al-Sadr could order his armed wing to resume fighting at any time.
Al-Sadr and Sectarian Violence
Many U.S. and Iraqi officials suspect that al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army was a driving force in the sectarian violence that pushed Iraq to the verge of all-out civil war in 2006. Even when al-Sadr directed members of his movement to show restraint, some elements would defy his orders and engage in sectarian attacks and attacks on the U.S.-led forces.
Al-Sadr’s Next Moves
While no one can be sure just exactly what al-Sadr is up to, it is likely that he is preparing his organization for the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iraq. Al-Sadr stands to do very well in the elections. He is wildly popular among Iraq’s Shiite population, largely due to the extensive services provided by his movement to ordinary Iraqis.
Al-Sadr has established broad popular support through his use of a social services network based on the one employed by Hezbollah in Lebanon. By providing goods and services that the central government in Baghdad either could not, or would not, al-Sadr garnered the support of the Iraqi Shiite population, who turned a blind eye to the accusations of sectarian violence.
A combination of factors, including improving infrastructure, crackdowns by U.S. and Iraqi forces, and political reconciliation that is occurring from the bottom up at the regional and local levels, have contributed to the need for al-Sadr to move from a position of armed resistance to one of political advancement.
Significant gains in upcoming elections could position al-Sadr to have a large degree of control in any future Iraqi government.
