The London Times reported August 15 that British combat troops could be redeployed from Iraq by the summer of 2009.
British officials have been planning to reduce the number of troops in Iraq for years, but a constantly shifting security situation on the ground has forced military troop levels to remain above 4,000. Britain currently has the second largest contingent of coalition forces in Iraq, trailing only the United States.
There has been some speculation that the United States would shift military forces to Basra in Iraq’s south in the event of a British departure. Such a move could have severe ramifications, including the delayed departure of U.S. units expected to withdraw after General David Petraeus provides Congress with a new assessment next month.
That assessment is widely expected to include recommendations for additional U.S. troop reductions.
Additionally, a British handover of Basra to the United States would cast doubt on the ability of Iraqi forces to provide their own security. Technically, the Iraqis are already responsible for Basra, with British troops relocated to an airfield outside the city. But British forces have been forced to remain in place to provide assistance to Iraqi forces facing a constant criminal and insurgent threat.
If the British do withdraw their combat forces from southern Iraq, it is likely that training teams would remain in place to continue to develop the competency and capability of Iraqi units.
The fragility of the situation in southern Iraq was clearly demonstrated recently when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki launched an offensive operation in Basra to dislodge Shiite militiamen and criminal gangs who had taken control of the city.
The operation quickly faltered, and faced with the prospect of a defeat of the Iraqi security forces, U.S. and British troops had to be rushed to the battle to regain control of the situation. Basra is considered critical to Iraq’s future because of the vast oil reserves located in Iraq’s south.
The United States has long feared Iranian influence in southern Iraq, which consists largely of a Shi’a population that is at least tolerable, if not friendly to, Iran.
A withdrawal of British combat troops from Iraq would further “Americanize” the Iraq conflict. Several other allied nations, including Poland and El Salvador, which have long been part of the U.S.-led coalition have announced their intention to leave Iraq, or at least reduce their force presence in the country. Georgia, which had the third largest contingent of troops in Iraq, recently redeployed its forces to face the threat posed by invading Russian troops.
